Inflation cooled in June, but your mortgage rate went up anyway. The reason is that the buyer of US government debt changed, which puts a floor under the rate that a Fed cut cannot lower, and the money pouring into AI works on that same rate from both ends. In Massachusetts, that holds prices up while the market slows underneath them.

Real rates went negative in April — Fed policy at 3.50–3.75% slipped below 3.81% inflation. Services drove the spike, not tariffs. CME FedWatch now prices a HIKE in September (18.6%) at higher odds than any cut. This issue traces Trump in Beijing and the Hormuz oil shock back to your Boston mortgage rate, plus the four-move investor playbook for what changes in your next deal.

Real rates went negative in April — Fed policy at 3.50–3.75% slipped below 3.81% inflation. Services drove the spike, not tariffs. CME FedWatch now prices a HIKE in September (18.6%) at higher odds than any cut. This issue traces Trump in Beijing and the Hormuz oil shock back to your Boston mortgage rate, plus the four-move investor playbook for what changes in your next deal.

The petrodollar arrangement that has anchored US borrowing costs for 50 years is loosening — France pulled 129 tonnes of gold from the NY Fed and Saudi Arabia joined a multi-currency oil settlement platform. Meanwhile Hormuz tankers stack up and March CPI spiked to 3.3%. This issue traces all of it back to what a Boston multifamily mortgage actually costs — and the May 5 rent control deadline that’s three weeks away.

Lead with the market hook Oil at $112, the 10-year Treasury up 3% in a single session, and zero chance of a Fed rate cut. Here is what this week's market chaos means for MA real estate buyers and investors.