JTBD RE Pulse · Rent Control Impact Tool

What does the November ballot do to your building?

Enter your building's specifics below. Outputs are estimates based on the proposed ballot text and current Greater Boston market data — not predictions, and not a substitute for an attorney.

Updated May 2026 Sources Ballotpedia · MassLandlords · Tufts CSPA · MA Elections Division Author Miglena Georgieva · Concept Properties · 617-762-5303
Step 1 · Building basics
Tell me about the building.
Sets the default cap rate (you can override). Drives the property tax shift estimate.
Owner's unit counts toward the total.
If the building was built (or fully rebuilt with a new C of O) in the last 10 years, it's exempt.
Important: per the proposed ballot, an LLC or trust title BREAKS the owner-occupied exemption — even if you live there.
Step 2 · Value & rents
Value & rents — by unit.
What the building would sell for today, pre-ballot.
Auto-fills based on owner-occupied status. Override if you have multiple owner-occupied units or want to model a vacant unit.
Per-unit rents — enter the actual rent for each rented unit
Unit
Current rent ($/mo)
Market rent ($/mo)
Gap
Market rent = what you'd charge a new tenant today, no rent control. Check Zillow / Apartments.com for unit-specific comps. The gap column updates as you type.
Step 3 · Underwriting assumptions
Cap rate & operating expense ratio.
Default for Medford / Malden: 5.0–5.75%. Q1 2026 market data. Override if your specific submarket trades at a different range.
Boston metro multifamily typical range: 35–50%. Includes property taxes, insurance, water/sewer, maintenance, management, and CapEx reserves. Default 40% is mid-range. The tool applies (1 − this ratio) to the rent gap to estimate net NOI before capitalizing.
Exemption status
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The dollar impact

Avg rent gap per unit
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Below market, per month — averaged across your rented units. See the per-unit breakdown below.
Annualized rent gap (gross)
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The rent income that would never be collected if the gap stays locked.
Net NOI gap (after OpEx)
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Gross rent gap minus your operating expense ratio.
Capitalized value impact
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Net NOI ÷ cap rate. The dollar amount an investor buyer wouldn't pay.
FHA / owner-occupant compression
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8–12% below investor pricing — owner-occupants finance personally and qualify on income, not NOI.
Total resale impact
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Estimated dollar drop in resale value once the ballot passes.
Effective haircut
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As a percentage of current market value.
The math
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The three doors

Most owners think they're choosing whether to sell. The math says they're choosing between three doors. Here are the numbers for YOUR building.

Door 1 · sell before November 2026
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Pre-ballot pricing. Investor market still underwriting on a future where the rent gap closes. Maximum exit value.
Door 2 · hold past Nov 2026, sell post-ballot
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Rent gap locked + buyer pool shrinks to FHA house-hackers and other owner-occupants who can't bid as high.
Door 3 · hold long-term, never sell
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Property tax shift estimated for your city. Owner-occupied exemption protects rent — not your tax bill.
The actual decision

The dollar delta between Door 1 and Door 2 is what you're really weighing. Not "is rent control bad" in the abstract — what does $— mean to your plan?

5-year cumulative lost rent income (estimate)

Assumes market rent grows 3% per year while controlled rent is capped at 3% from the January 31, 2026 base. The gap widens each year. This is the cumulative income you'd never collect over a 5-year hold — even if you don't sell.

Year 1 lost
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Year 5 cumulative
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Sources & caveats

This is an estimate, not a prediction. The proposed ballot text — including the 5-year vacant-unit lookback, the no-renovation exception, and the unspecified CPI series — leaves several practical questions unresolved. Real-world outcomes for any specific building will depend on the cap rate at sale, the actual buyer pool, the specific lease history of each unit, and any court rulings or implementing regulations after the ballot passes.

Sourced from: Ballotpedia (ballot text and exemptions); MassLandlords "Content and Analysis" (the LLC trap, the Section 8 trap, the no-renovation exception, the 5-year lookback); Tufts University Center for State Policy Analysis 2026 study (city-by-city property tax projections); Greater Boston multifamily cap rate ranges from Q1 2026 market data (Matthews, Yardi Matrix, Northmarq). Last cross-checked May 2026.

This tool is not legal, tax, or investment advice. If your building has any unusual structure (LLC + family trust, recent transfer, vacant unit history, mixed-use, condominium override), please consult a Massachusetts real estate attorney before making decisions. The owner-occupied exemption mechanics are particularly worth a 15-minute attorney call before November.

What now?
Print it and bring it to a conversation.
If you want me to walk through these numbers in person and pull comps for your specific building, I'd be glad to. 20 minutes, no pitch. You keep the analysis. Reach me at mg@jtbd.online or 617-762-5303.

JTBD RE Pulse · jtbd.online · Rent Control Impact Tool · Verified May 2026